← dashboard Westminster voting intention Poll-of-polls · 12 months · latest 31 Aug, 01:00
Voting intention 12M · 14d half-life EWMA Latest averages Party Avg Δ7d Δ30d 25.9 −0.2 −0.1 24.5 +0.4 +1.3 20.2 +0.2 +0.1 10.6 −0.1 −1.0 10.1 −0.1 0.0 3.3 +0.1 −0.1 2.8 −0.2 +0.1 1.0 0.0 −0.1
Seat projection Labour largest on 233–301 seats depending on swing model — 93 short of a majority, so a hung parliament.
Both models, same poll: Labour 233–301 · Reform UK 107–214 · Conservative 69–113 · Liberal Democrats 69–73 · SNP 22–27.
Projected Commons Proportional swing · 2024 baseline 650 seats 326 for a majority
Aldershot — Labour hold Aldridge-Brownhills — Reform UK gain from Conservative Altrincham and Sale West — Labour hold Amber Valley — Reform UK gain from Labour Arundel and South Downs — Conservative hold Ashfield — Reform UK hold Ashford — Reform UK gain from Labour Ashton-under-Lyne — Reform UK gain from Labour Aylesbury — Conservative gain from Labour Banbury — Labour hold Barking — Labour hold Barnsley North — Reform UK gain from Labour Barnsley South — Reform UK gain from Labour Barrow and Furness — Labour hold Basildon and Billericay — Reform UK gain from Conservative Basingstoke — Labour hold Bassetlaw — Reform UK gain from Labour Bath — Liberal Democrats hold Battersea — Labour hold Beaconsfield — Conservative hold Beckenham and Penge — Labour hold Bedford — Labour hold Bermondsey and Old Southwark — Labour hold Bethnal Green and Stepney — Labour hold Beverley and Holderness — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bexhill and Battle — Conservative hold Bexleyheath and Crayford — Reform UK gain from Labour Bicester and Woodstock — Liberal Democrats hold Birkenhead — Labour hold Birmingham Edgbaston — Labour hold Birmingham Erdington — Reform UK gain from Labour Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley — Labour hold Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North — Reform UK gain from Labour Birmingham Ladywood — Labour hold Birmingham Northfield — Reform UK gain from Labour Birmingham Perry Barr — Others hold Birmingham Selly Oak — Labour hold Birmingham Yardley — Reform UK gain from Labour Bishop Auckland — Reform UK gain from Labour Blackburn — Others hold Blackley and Middleton South — Labour hold Blackpool North and Fleetwood — Reform UK gain from Labour Blackpool South — Reform UK gain from Labour Blaydon and Consett — Reform UK gain from Labour Blyth and Ashington — Reform UK gain from Labour Bognor Regis and Littlehampton — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bolsover — Reform UK gain from Labour Bolton North East — Reform UK gain from Labour Bolton South and Walkden — Reform UK gain from Labour Bolton West — Reform UK gain from Labour Bootle — Labour hold Boston and Skegness — Reform UK hold Bournemouth East — Labour hold Bournemouth West — Reform UK gain from Labour Bracknell — Reform UK gain from Labour Bradford East — Labour hold Bradford South — Reform UK gain from Labour Bradford West — Labour hold Braintree — Reform UK gain from Conservative Brent East — Labour hold Brent West — Labour hold Brentford and Isleworth — Labour hold Brentwood and Ongar — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bridgwater — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bridlington and The Wolds — Reform UK gain from Conservative Brigg and Immingham — Reform UK gain from Conservative Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven — Labour hold Brighton Pavilion — Green hold Bristol Central — Green hold Bristol East — Green gain from Labour Bristol North East — Labour hold Bristol North West — Labour hold Bristol South — Green gain from Labour Broadland and Fakenham — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bromley and Biggin Hill — Reform UK gain from Conservative Bromsgrove — Reform UK gain from Conservative Broxbourne — Reform UK gain from Conservative Broxtowe — Labour hold Buckingham and Bletchley — Labour hold Burnley — Reform UK gain from Labour Burton and Uttoxeter — Reform UK gain from Labour Bury North — Labour hold Bury South — Labour hold Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket — Reform UK gain from Labour Calder Valley — Labour hold Camborne and Redruth — Reform UK gain from Labour Cambridge — Labour hold Cannock Chase — Reform UK gain from Labour Canterbury — Labour hold Carlisle — Reform UK gain from Labour Carshalton and Wallington — Liberal Democrats hold Castle Point — Reform UK gain from Conservative Central Devon — Conservative hold Central Suffolk and North Ipswich — Reform UK gain from Conservative Chatham and Aylesford — Reform UK gain from Labour Cheadle — Liberal Democrats hold Chelmsford — Liberal Democrats hold Chelsea and Fulham — Conservative gain from Labour Cheltenham — Liberal Democrats hold Chesham and Amersham — Liberal Democrats hold Chester North and Neston — Labour hold Chester South and Eddisbury — Conservative hold Chesterfield — Labour hold Chichester — Liberal Democrats hold Chingford and Woodford Green — Conservative hold Chippenham — Liberal Democrats hold Chipping Barnet — Labour hold Chorley — Others hold Christchurch — Reform UK gain from Conservative Cities of London and Westminster — Labour hold City of Durham — Labour hold Clacton — Reform UK hold Clapham and Brixton Hill — Labour hold Colchester — Labour hold Colne Valley — Labour hold Congleton — Labour hold Corby and East Northamptonshire — Labour hold Coventry East — Labour hold Coventry North West — Labour hold Coventry South — Labour hold Cramlington and Killingworth — Labour hold Crawley — Reform UK gain from Labour Crewe and Nantwich — Reform UK gain from Labour Croydon East — Labour hold Croydon South — Conservative hold Croydon West — Labour hold Dagenham and Rainham — Reform UK gain from Labour Darlington — Labour hold Dartford — Reform UK gain from Labour Daventry — Reform UK gain from Conservative Derby North — Labour hold Derby South — Reform UK gain from Labour Derbyshire Dales — Conservative gain from Labour Dewsbury and Batley — Others hold Didcot and Wantage — Liberal Democrats hold Doncaster Central — Reform UK gain from Labour Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme — Reform UK gain from Labour Doncaster North — Labour hold Dorking and Horley — Liberal Democrats hold Dover and Deal — Reform UK gain from Labour Droitwich and Evesham — Conservative hold Dudley — Reform UK gain from Labour Dulwich and West Norwood — Labour hold Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard — Reform UK gain from Labour Ealing Central and Acton — Labour hold Ealing North — Labour hold Ealing Southall — Labour hold Earley and Woodley — Conservative gain from Labour Easington — Reform UK gain from Labour East Grinstead and Uckfield — Conservative hold East Ham — Labour hold East Hampshire — Conservative hold East Surrey — Conservative hold East Thanet — Reform UK gain from Labour East Wiltshire — Conservative hold East Worthing and Shoreham — Labour hold Eastbourne — Liberal Democrats hold Eastleigh — Liberal Democrats hold Edmonton and Winchmore Hill — Labour hold Ellesmere Port and Bromborough — Labour hold Eltham and Chislehurst — Labour hold Ely and East Cambridgeshire — Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Enfield North — Labour hold Epping Forest — Conservative hold Epsom and Ewell — Liberal Democrats hold Erewash — Reform UK gain from Labour Erith and Thamesmead — Labour hold Esher and Walton — Liberal Democrats hold Exeter — Labour hold Exmouth and Exeter East — Conservative hold Fareham and Waterlooville — Reform UK gain from Conservative Farnham and Bordon — Conservative hold Faversham and Mid Kent — Reform UK gain from Conservative Feltham and Heston — Labour hold Filton and Bradley Stoke — Labour hold Finchley and Golders Green — Labour hold Folkestone and Hythe — Reform UK gain from Labour Forest of Dean — Reform UK gain from Labour Frome and East Somerset — Liberal Democrats hold Fylde — Reform UK gain from Conservative Gainsborough — Reform UK gain from Conservative Gateshead Central and Whickham — Reform UK gain from Labour Gedling — Labour hold Gillingham and Rainham — Reform UK gain from Labour Glastonbury and Somerton — Liberal Democrats hold Gloucester — Labour hold Godalming and Ash — Conservative hold Goole and Pocklington — Conservative hold Gorton and Denton — Labour hold Gosport — Conservative hold Grantham and Bourne — Reform UK gain from Conservative Gravesham — Reform UK gain from Labour Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes — Reform UK gain from Labour Great Yarmouth — Reform UK hold Greenwich and Woolwich — Labour hold Guildford — Liberal Democrats hold Hackney North and Stoke Newington — Labour hold Hackney South and Shoreditch — Labour hold Halesowen — Reform UK gain from Labour Halifax — Reform UK gain from Labour Hamble Valley — Conservative hold Hammersmith and Chiswick — Labour hold Hampstead and Highgate — Labour hold Harborough, Oadby and Wigston — Conservative hold Harlow — Reform UK gain from Labour Harpenden and Berkhamsted — Liberal Democrats hold Harrogate and Knaresborough — Liberal Democrats hold Harrow East — Conservative hold Harrow West — Labour hold Hartlepool — Reform UK gain from Labour Harwich and North Essex — Reform UK gain from Conservative Hastings and Rye — Labour hold Havant — Reform UK gain from Conservative Hayes and Harlington — Labour hold Hazel Grove — Liberal Democrats hold Hemel Hempstead — Reform UK gain from Labour Hendon — Conservative gain from Labour Henley and Thame — Liberal Democrats hold Hereford and South Herefordshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative Herne Bay and Sandwich — Reform UK gain from Conservative Hertford and Stortford — Labour hold Hertsmere — Conservative hold Hexham — Labour hold Heywood and Middleton North — Reform UK gain from Labour High Peak — Labour hold Hinckley and Bosworth — Reform UK gain from Conservative Hitchin — Labour hold Holborn and St Pancras — Labour hold Honiton and Sidmouth — Liberal Democrats hold Hornchurch and Upminster — Reform UK gain from Conservative Hornsey and Friern Barnet — Labour hold Horsham — Liberal Democrats hold Houghton and Sunderland South — Reform UK gain from Labour Hove and Portslade — Labour hold Huddersfield — Green gain from Labour Huntingdon — Conservative hold Hyndburn — Reform UK gain from Labour Ilford North — Labour hold Ilford South — Labour hold Ipswich — Labour hold Isle of Wight East — Reform UK gain from Conservative Isle of Wight West — Labour hold Islington North — Others hold Islington South and Finsbury — Labour hold Jarrow and Gateshead East — Reform UK gain from Labour Keighley and Ilkley — Conservative hold Kenilworth and Southam — Conservative hold Kensington and Bayswater — Labour hold Kettering — Reform UK gain from Labour Kingston and Surbiton — Liberal Democrats hold Kingston upon Hull East — Reform UK gain from Labour Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham — Labour hold Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice — Reform UK gain from Labour Kingswinford and South Staffordshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative Knowsley — Labour hold Lancaster and Wyre — Labour hold Leeds Central and Headingley — Labour hold Leeds East — Labour hold Leeds North East — Labour hold Leeds North West — Labour hold Leeds South — Labour hold Leeds South West and Morley — Reform UK gain from Labour Leeds West and Pudsey — Labour hold Leicester East — Conservative hold Leicester South — Others hold Leicester West — Labour hold Leigh and Atherton — Reform UK gain from Labour Lewes — Liberal Democrats hold Lewisham East — Labour hold Lewisham North — Labour hold Lewisham West and East Dulwich — Labour hold Leyton and Wanstead — Labour hold Lichfield — Reform UK gain from Labour Lincoln — Labour hold Liverpool Garston — Labour hold Liverpool Riverside — Labour hold Liverpool Walton — Labour hold Liverpool Wavertree — Labour hold Liverpool West Derby — Labour hold Loughborough — Labour hold Louth and Horncastle — Reform UK gain from Conservative Lowestoft — Reform UK gain from Labour Luton North — Labour hold Luton South and South Bedfordshire — Labour hold Macclesfield — Labour hold Maidenhead — Liberal Democrats hold Maidstone and Malling — Reform UK gain from Conservative Makerfield — Reform UK gain from Labour Maldon — Reform UK gain from Conservative Manchester Central — Labour hold Manchester Rusholme — Labour hold Manchester Withington — Labour hold Mansfield — Reform UK gain from Labour Melksham and Devizes — Liberal Democrats hold Melton and Syston — Reform UK gain from Conservative Meriden and Solihull East — Reform UK gain from Conservative Mid Bedfordshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative Mid Buckinghamshire — Conservative hold Mid Cheshire — Labour hold Mid Derbyshire — Reform UK gain from Labour Mid Dorset and North Poole — Liberal Democrats hold Mid Leicestershire — Reform UK gain from Conservative Mid Norfolk — Reform UK gain from Conservative Mid Sussex — Liberal Democrats hold Middlesbrough and Thornaby East — Labour hold Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland — Conservative gain from Labour Milton Keynes Central — Labour hold Milton Keynes North — Labour hold Mitcham and Morden — Labour hold Morecambe and Lunesdale — Labour hold New Forest East — Conservative hold New Forest West — Conservative hold Newark — Conservative hold Newbury — Liberal Democrats hold Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West — Labour hold Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend — Labour hold Newcastle upon Tyne North — Labour hold Newcastle-under-Lyme — Reform UK gain from Labour Newton Abbot — Reform UK gain from Liberal Democrats Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor — Reform UK gain from Labour Normanton and Hemsworth — Reform UK gain from Labour North Bedfordshire — Conservative hold North Cornwall — Liberal Democrats hold North Cotswolds — Conservative hold North Devon — Liberal Democrats hold North Dorset — Conservative hold North Durham — Reform UK gain from Labour North East Cambridgeshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative North East Derbyshire — Reform UK gain from Labour North East Hampshire — Liberal Democrats hold North East Hertfordshire — Reform UK gain from Labour North East Somerset and Hanham — Labour hold North Herefordshire — Green hold North Norfolk — Liberal Democrats hold North Northumberland — Labour hold North Shropshire — Liberal Democrats hold North Somerset — Conservative gain from Labour North Warwickshire and Bedworth — Reform UK gain from Labour North West Cambridgeshire — Reform UK gain from Labour North West Essex — Conservative hold North West Hampshire — Conservative hold North West Leicestershire — Reform UK gain from Labour North West Norfolk — Reform UK gain from Conservative Northampton North — Labour hold Northampton South — Reform UK gain from Labour Norwich North — Labour hold Norwich South — Labour hold Nottingham East — Labour hold Nottingham North and Kimberley — Labour hold Nottingham South — Labour hold Nuneaton — Reform UK gain from Labour Old Bexley and Sidcup — Reform UK gain from Conservative Oldham East and Saddleworth — Reform UK gain from Labour Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton — Reform UK gain from Labour Orpington — Reform UK gain from Conservative Ossett and Denby Dale — Reform UK gain from Labour Oxford East — Labour hold Oxford West and Abingdon — Liberal Democrats hold Peckham — Labour hold Pendle and Clitheroe — Reform UK gain from Labour Penistone and Stocksbridge — Reform UK gain from Labour Penrith and Solway — Labour hold Peterborough — Conservative gain from Labour Plymouth Moor View — Reform UK gain from Labour Plymouth Sutton and Devonport — Labour hold Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley — Reform UK gain from Labour Poole — Reform UK gain from Labour Poplar and Limehouse — Labour hold Portsmouth North — Reform UK gain from Labour Portsmouth South — Labour hold Preston — Labour hold Putney — Labour hold Queen's Park and Maida Vale — Labour hold Rawmarsh and Conisbrough — Reform UK gain from Labour Rayleigh and Wickford — Reform UK gain from Conservative Reading Central — Labour hold Reading West and Mid Berkshire — Conservative gain from Labour Redcar — Reform UK gain from Labour Redditch — Reform UK gain from Labour Reigate — Conservative hold Ribble Valley — Conservative gain from Labour Richmond and Northallerton — Conservative hold Richmond Park — Liberal Democrats hold Rochdale — Reform UK gain from Labour Rochester and Strood — Reform UK gain from Labour Romford — Reform UK gain from Conservative Romsey and Southampton North — Conservative hold Rossendale and Darwen — Reform UK gain from Labour Rother Valley — Reform UK gain from Labour Rotherham — Reform UK gain from Labour Rugby — Labour hold Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner — Conservative hold Runcorn and Helsby — Labour hold Runnymede and Weybridge — Conservative hold Rushcliffe — Labour hold Rutland and Stamford — Conservative hold Salford — Labour hold Salisbury — Conservative hold Scarborough and Whitby — Reform UK gain from Labour Scunthorpe — Reform UK gain from Labour Sefton Central — Labour hold Selby — Labour hold Sevenoaks — Reform UK gain from Conservative Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough — Labour hold Sheffield Central — Green gain from Labour Sheffield Hallam — Labour hold Sheffield Heeley — Labour hold Sheffield South East — Labour hold Sherwood Forest — Reform UK gain from Labour Shipley — Labour hold Shrewsbury — Labour hold Sittingbourne and Sheppey — Reform UK gain from Labour Skipton and Ripon — Conservative hold Sleaford and North Hykeham — Reform UK gain from Conservative Slough — Labour hold Smethwick — Labour hold Solihull West and Shirley — Conservative hold South Basildon and East Thurrock — Reform UK hold South Cambridgeshire — Liberal Democrats hold South Cotswolds — Liberal Democrats hold South Derbyshire — Reform UK gain from Labour South Devon — Liberal Democrats hold South Dorset — Reform UK gain from Labour South East Cornwall — Reform UK gain from Labour South Holland and The Deepings — Reform UK gain from Conservative South Leicestershire — Reform UK gain from Conservative South Norfolk — Labour hold South Northamptonshire — Conservative hold South Ribble — Reform UK gain from Labour South Shields — Reform UK gain from Labour South Shropshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative South Suffolk — Reform UK gain from Conservative South West Devon — Reform UK gain from Conservative South West Hertfordshire — Conservative hold South West Norfolk — Reform UK gain from Labour South West Wiltshire — Reform UK gain from Conservative Southampton Itchen — Labour hold Southampton Test — Labour hold Southend East and Rochford — Reform UK gain from Labour Southend West and Leigh — Reform UK gain from Labour Southgate and Wood Green — Labour hold Southport — Labour hold Spelthorne — Reform UK gain from Conservative Spen Valley — Reform UK gain from Labour St Albans — Liberal Democrats hold St Austell and Newquay — Reform UK gain from Labour St Helens North — Labour hold St Helens South and Whiston — Labour hold St Ives — Liberal Democrats hold St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire — Liberal Democrats hold Stafford — Reform UK gain from Labour Staffordshire Moorlands — Reform UK gain from Conservative Stalybridge and Hyde — Reform UK gain from Labour Stevenage — Labour hold Stockport — Labour hold Stockton North — Reform UK gain from Labour Stockton West — Conservative hold Stoke-on-Trent Central — Reform UK gain from Labour Stoke-on-Trent North — Reform UK gain from Labour Stoke-on-Trent South — Reform UK gain from Labour Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge — Conservative hold Stourbridge — Reform UK gain from Labour Stratford and Bow — Labour hold Stratford-on-Avon — Liberal Democrats hold Streatham and Croydon North — Labour hold Stretford and Urmston — Labour hold Stroud — Labour hold Suffolk Coastal — Reform UK gain from Labour Sunderland Central — Reform UK gain from Labour Surrey Heath — Liberal Democrats hold Sussex Weald — Reform UK gain from Conservative Sutton and Cheam — Liberal Democrats hold Sutton Coldfield — Conservative hold Swindon North — Labour hold Swindon South — Labour hold Tamworth — Reform UK gain from Labour Tatton — Conservative hold Taunton and Wellington — Liberal Democrats hold Telford — Reform UK gain from Labour Tewkesbury — Liberal Democrats hold The Wrekin — Reform UK gain from Conservative Thirsk and Malton — Conservative hold Thornbury and Yate — Liberal Democrats hold Thurrock — Reform UK gain from Labour Tipton and Wednesbury — Reform UK gain from Labour Tiverton and Minehead — Liberal Democrats hold Tonbridge — Conservative hold Tooting — Labour hold Torbay — Liberal Democrats hold Torridge and Tavistock — Reform UK gain from Conservative Tottenham — Labour hold Truro and Falmouth — Labour hold Tunbridge Wells — Liberal Democrats hold Twickenham — Liberal Democrats hold Tynemouth — Labour hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip — Conservative gain from Labour Vauxhall and Camberwell Green — Labour hold Wakefield and Rothwell — Reform UK gain from Labour Wallasey — Labour hold Walsall and Bloxwich — Reform UK gain from Labour Walthamstow — Labour hold Warrington North — Reform UK gain from Labour Warrington South — Labour hold Warwick and Leamington — Labour hold Washington and Gateshead South — Reform UK gain from Labour Watford — Labour hold Waveney Valley — Green hold Weald of Kent — Reform UK gain from Conservative Wellingborough and Rushden — Reform UK gain from Labour Wells and Mendip Hills — Liberal Democrats hold Welwyn Hatfield — Labour hold West Bromwich — Labour hold West Dorset — Liberal Democrats hold West Ham and Beckton — Labour hold West Lancashire — Labour hold West Suffolk — Reform UK gain from Conservative West Worcestershire — Conservative hold Westmorland and Lonsdale — Liberal Democrats hold Weston-super-Mare — Reform UK gain from Labour Wetherby and Easingwold — Conservative hold Whitehaven and Workington — Labour hold Widnes and Halewood — Labour hold Wigan — Reform UK gain from Labour Wimbledon — Liberal Democrats hold Winchester — Liberal Democrats hold Windsor — Conservative hold Wirral West — Labour hold Witham — Reform UK gain from Conservative Witney — Liberal Democrats hold Woking — Liberal Democrats hold Wokingham — Liberal Democrats hold Wolverhampton North East — Reform UK gain from Labour Wolverhampton South East — Reform UK gain from Labour Wolverhampton West — Labour hold Worcester — Labour hold Worsley and Eccles — Reform UK gain from Labour Worthing West — Labour hold Wycombe — Labour hold Wyre Forest — Reform UK gain from Conservative Wythenshawe and Sale East — Labour hold Yeovil — Liberal Democrats hold York Central — Labour hold York Outer — Labour hold Belfast East — DUP (held at 2024) Belfast North — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) Belfast South and Mid Down — SDLP (held at 2024) Belfast West — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) East Antrim — DUP (held at 2024) East Londonderry — DUP (held at 2024) Fermanagh and South Tyrone — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) Foyle — SDLP (held at 2024) Lagan Valley — Alliance (held at 2024) Mid Ulster — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) Newry and Armagh — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) North Antrim — Others (held at 2024) North Down — Others (held at 2024) South Antrim — UUP (held at 2024) South Down — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) Strangford — DUP (held at 2024) Upper Bann — DUP (held at 2024) West Tyrone — Sinn Féin (held at 2024) East Renfrewshire — Labour hold Na h-Eileanan an Iar — Labour hold Midlothian — Labour hold North Ayrshire and Arran — SNP gain from Labour Orkney and Shetland — Liberal Democrats hold Aberdeen North — SNP hold Aberdeen South — SNP hold Aberdeenshire North and Moray East — SNP hold Airdrie and Shotts — Labour hold Alloa and Grangemouth — Labour hold Angus and Perthshire Glens — SNP hold Arbroath and Broughty Ferry — SNP hold Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber — SNP hold Bathgate and Linlithgow — Labour hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross — Liberal Democrats hold Coatbridge and Bellshill — Labour hold Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy — Labour hold Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch — SNP gain from Labour Dumfries and Galloway — SNP gain from Conservative Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale — Conservative hold Dundee Central — SNP hold Dunfermline and Dollar — Labour hold East Kilbride and Strathaven — Labour hold Edinburgh East and Musselburgh — SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh North and Leith — Labour hold Edinburgh South — Labour hold Edinburgh South West — Labour hold Edinburgh West — Liberal Democrats hold Falkirk — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow East — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North East — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South West — SNP gain from Labour Glasgow West — Labour hold Glenrothes and Mid Fife — SNP gain from Labour Gordon and Buchan — SNP gain from Conservative Hamilton and Clyde Valley — Labour hold Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West — Labour hold Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire — SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Livingston — SNP gain from Labour Lothian East — Labour hold Mid Dunbartonshire — Liberal Democrats hold Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey — SNP hold Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke — Labour hold North East Fife — Liberal Democrats hold Paisley and Renfrewshire North — Labour hold Paisley and Renfrewshire South — Labour hold Perth and Kinross-shire — SNP hold Rutherglen — Labour hold Stirling and Strathallan — SNP gain from Labour West Dunbartonshire — Labour hold Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock — SNP gain from Labour Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk — Conservative hold Central Ayrshire — Labour hold Kilmarnock and Loudoun — SNP gain from Labour West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine — SNP gain from Conservative Aberafan Maesteg — Labour hold Alyn and Deeside — Reform UK gain from Labour Bangor Aberconwy — Plaid Cymru gain from Labour Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney — Labour hold Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe — Liberal Democrats hold Bridgend — Reform UK gain from Labour Caerfyrddin — Plaid Cymru hold Caerphilly — Reform UK gain from Labour Cardiff East — Labour hold Cardiff North — Labour hold Cardiff South and Penarth — Labour hold Cardiff West — Plaid Cymru gain from Labour Ceredigion Preseli — Plaid Cymru hold Clwyd East — Labour hold Clwyd North — Reform UK gain from Labour Dwyfor Meirionnydd — Plaid Cymru hold Gower — Labour hold Llanelli — Reform UK gain from Labour Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare — Reform UK gain from Labour Mid and South Pembrokeshire — Reform UK gain from Labour Monmouthshire — Labour hold Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr — Reform UK gain from Labour Neath and Swansea East — Reform UK gain from Labour Newport East — Reform UK gain from Labour Newport West and Islwyn — Reform UK gain from Labour Pontypridd — Reform UK gain from Labour Rhondda and Ogmore — Reform UK gain from Labour Swansea West — Labour hold Torfaen — Reform UK gain from Labour Vale of Glamorgan — Labour hold Wrexham — Labour hold Ynys Môn — Plaid Cymru hold Party Proportional Both models vs 2024 233 233–301 −178 214 107–214 +209 69 69–113 −52 69 69–73 −3 27 22–27 +18 8 5–8 +4 6 8 0 6 5–6 +2 18 18 held
Tightest seats changing hands Constituency 2024 Projected Margin Birmingham Yardley LAB RUK 0.02 Ely and East Cambridgeshire LD CON 0.03 North East Derbyshire LAB RUK 0.04 Newport East LAB RUK 0.09 Doncaster Central LAB RUK 0.14 South West Wiltshire CON RUK 0.27 Ribble Valley LAB CON 0.28 Worsley and Eccles LAB RUK 0.35 Mid Leicestershire CON RUK 0.35 South Ribble LAB RUK 0.35
Two models, one poll. Proportional swing — the figure drawn above — multiplies each party's 2024-07-04 share in every seat by its national ratio, so a party that doubles nationally doubles everywhere and its gains land where it already had votes. Uniform national swing adds each party's national change to every seat instead, moving all 650 by the same number of points; that spreads a surge evenly over seats where the party polled 3% and understates where it is actually strong. The range above is the two answers. Neither is a forecast: both are arithmetic on today's poll-of-polls, and neither knows anything about candidates, incumbency, tactical voting or local campaigns. SNP and Plaid figures are re-based from the GB poll to Scotland and Wales. The 18 Northern Ireland seats are held at their 2024 result, because no GB poll measures those parties. Baseline: House of Commons Library (2023 review (650)).
Leader approval Net approval 12M · positive − negative Marks are the same stories as the key above.
Leader Pos Neg Net Δ7d Δ30d 42.0 28.3 +13.7 +0.5 −1.3 34.6 33.4 +1.1 +0.4 +0.8 23.1 28.2 −5.0 −0.1 −1.8 29.2 52.7 −23.4 +1.6 +1.4 20.1 43.6 −23.7 +1.1 −0.2
Regional polling Individual sub-national polls, newest first — not a poll-of-polls. Regions are polled far too rarely to average: the national figure above blends five pollsters over a month, while most of these regions get a handful of polls a year. Read each row as one pollster on one date, and mind the gap between that date and today.
Scotland 36 polls Fieldwork Pollster n SNP LAB RUK LD CON 4–10 Aug 2026 Find Out Now · The National 1,020 29 18 17 10 10 27–29 May 2026 Norstat · Sunday Times 1,002 34 16 17 9 10 27–30 Apr 2026 Norstat · Sunday Times 1,002 29 19 18 10 14 14–21 Apr 2026 Survation · Ballot Box Scotland 1,008 31 19 21 8 10 30 Mar–1 Apr 2026 Norstat · Sunday Times 1,006 32 18 16 10 11 26–31 Mar 2026 Ipsos · STV News 1,030 37 15 18 8 11
showing the 6 most recent of 36
Wales 8 polls · nothing newer than 5 months Fieldwork Pollster n PC RUK GRN CON LAB LD 12–19 Mar 2026 YouGov · ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,082 29 24 14 12 12 5 5–12 Jan 2026 YouGov · Barn Cymru 1,205 29 25 12 12 13 6 28 Nov–10 Dec 2025 YouGov · Cardiff University 2,500 19 30 14 13 15 8 4–10 Sept 2025 YouGov · Barn Cymru 1,220 23 29 7 11 18 9 23–30 Apr 2025 YouGov · Barn Cymru 1,248 24 24 7 13 20 9 10 Mar–3 Apr 2025 Survation 844 18 25 6 15 29 6
showing the 6 most recent of 8
London 8 polls Fieldwork Pollster n LAB CON GRN RUK LD 30 Jun–8 Jul 2026 Savanta · QMUL 1,038 31 19 18 16 10 17–23 Dec 2025 Savanta · QMUL 1,006 30 17 17 21 13 15–21 Dec 2025 Savanta · QMUL 1,006 31 17 18 19 13 30 Oct–7 Nov 2025 Savanta · Centre for London 1,242 32 20 10 23 11 29 Apr–21 May 2025 Savanta · QMUL 1,003 32 21 13 15 13 4–8 May 2025 Find Out Now · Alex Wilson 1,102 30 17 15 19 16
showing the 6 most recent of 8
Greater Manchester 2 polls · nothing newer than 7 months Fieldwork Pollster n RUK LAB GRN LD CON 23–24 Jan 2026 Find Out Now 1,003 36 24 18 10 9 4 Jul 2024 2024 general electionresult — 17 43 8 9 16
Northern England and the Midlands 2 polls · nothing newer than 16 months Fieldwork Pollster n RUK LAB CON LD GRN 11–13 Apr 2025 Survation · Friderichs Advisory Partners 2,032 30 27 22 10 9 4 Jul 2024 2024 general electionresult — 18 40 24 8 7
100 most rural constituencies 2 polls · nothing newer than 21 months Fieldwork Pollster n CON LAB RUK LD GRN 14–21 Nov 2024 Survation · Country Land and Business Association 1,007 34 21 21 18 7 4 Jul 2024 2024 general election (Survation)result — 34 24 16 19 6
Rows marked result are election results, not polls — kept because a region with one poll needs something to read it against · sub-national polls never enter the national poll-of-polls · poll list via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).
Methodology For each party we take an exponentially-weighted moving average over poll fieldwork midpoints with a 14-day half-life, using each pollster's most recent poll in the trailing 30-day window and requiring at least five polls. Poll list via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); figures are percentages of Westminster voting intention.